Helpful links for budget planning

Fearless forecast for 2011-12

Every year at this time, we develop forecasts of major county revenues and assemble other information to help county officials put together their proposed budgets for the upcoming fiscal year.

Please find here a spreadsheet of all local state-shared revenues from 2009-10. We have also linked all other accompanying materials within this main document for your easy retrieval.

State and National Economic Outlook

While the “Great Recession” officially ended in late summer 2009 after 20 months of the steepest economic decline since the “Great Depression,” state economic growth has only recently begun to take hold. In his March 15 economic forecast, Dr. John Connaughton, UNCC’s Babson Capital Professor of Financial Economics, writes that North Carolina’s economy continued to lag behind the U.S in 2010, with state GDP growing at 1.3 percent versus the U.S.’s 2.8 percent growth. With more jobs in manufacturing and housing, North Carolina suffered more severely, losing 280,000 jobs during 2008 and 2009, and adding only 10,500 jobs last year. Dr. Connaughton does project an improving job outlook in 2011, although he cautions that it will take 4 to 5 years to regain 2007 employment levels.

While forecasters predict continuing recovery in 2011, growth predictions are modest at best and do not track with past post-recessionary recoveries. Nationally, the U.S. economy is predicted to expand by 2.7 percent (Wells Fargo Economics), on par with the state economic outlook (Connaughton, UNCC).

• Read the full 'fearless forecast' for 2011-12

State-Collected Local Revenues

• Sales, deed stamp, hold harmless, beer & wine, occupancy, white goods, scrap tire receipts (XLS)
• Art. 40 first one-half cent second one-half cent allocations and distributable shares by county (XLS)
• Art. 42 first one-half cent second one-half cent allocations and distributable shares by county(XLS)
• Art. 39 first one-cent allocations and distributable shares by county (XLS)

ADM Fund

• County balances to date (PDF)

Lottery School Construction Fund

• Estimated lottery allocations per statutory formula and per pupil allocation (XLS)
• County balances to date
• N.C. Education Lottery

Medicaid and Social Services

• 2011-12 estimated county Medicaid hold harmless (XLS)
• Suggested methodology for calculating Medicaid hold harmless (PDF)
• DHHS budget estimates

State allotments for public schools

• Suggested methodology for Art. 40 & 42 school capital set-aside (PDF)
• Link to DPI Budget for your county's public school system(s) and related materials
• Local salary supplements paid to teachers and other school employees
• Schools statistical profile, facts and figures

2010 Census

• 2010 County Census Population (XLS)

Miscellaneous

• Department of Revenue contacts
• N.C. General Assembly Fiscal Research