Helpful links for budget planning

Fearless forecast for 2009-10

Every year at this time, we develop forecasts of major county revenues and assemble other information to help county officials put together their proposed budgets for the upcoming fiscal year.

Please find here a spreadsheet of all local state-shared revenues from 2007-08. We have also linked all other accompanying materials within this main document for your easy retrieval.

State and National Economic Outlook

The global economic crisis and financial upheaval have devastated the state’s economy, and with that, the state’s revenue collections. Not surprisingly, the economy-based revenue sources such as personal income tax withholdings and sales taxes are being hit hardest. The state’s January unemployment rate jumped from 5.0 percent a year ago to 9.7 percent, with 197,000 fewer jobs; February’s rate jumped another percentage point to 10.7 percent, the 4^th highest nationally. Even as dire as these rates are, they mask what’s happening in individual counties. In January, the most recent data available, 66 counties had unemployment rates exceeding the statewide average, with Dare County being the highest at 17.8 percent unadjusted.

Based on the most recent analysis by the General Assembly’s Fiscal Research Division, through February, state revenue collections are 9.2 percent below forecast, or off by $1.2 billion. February sales collections versus forecast plummeted 12 percent, with expectations of a fiscal year-end decline of roughly 5.5 percent as compared with last year’s baseline sales tax collections. To put that in perspective, the largest quarterly decline year over year during the 2001 recession was 3.6 percent. We anticipate similar declines in the local sales tax portion for 2008-09.

By fiscal year end, the state’s revenues are expected to be 10.7 percent lower than budgeted, or a $2.3 billion gap in a $21.4 billion budget.

Little relief is in sight. State economists project recession-like conditions throughout 2009, with only sluggish economic recovery expected in early 2010. One bright spot is two months of increased national consumer spending.

• Read the full 'fearless forecast' for 2009-10 (PDF)

Analysis of 2009-10 budget proposals

• Governor's budget proposal
• Governor's Budget PowerPoint
• Governor's Budget Bill

State-Shared Revenues

• Sales, deed stamp, hold harmless, beer & wine, occupancy, white goods, scrap tire receipts (XLS)
• Art. 40 First One-Half Cent and Art. 42 Second One-Half Cent Allocations and Distributable Shares by County (XLS)
• Art. 39 First One-Cent Allocations and Distributable Shares by County (XLS)

ADM Fund

• County Balances to Date (PDF)
• School Capital Survey (PDF)

Lottery School Construction Fund

• Estimated lottery allocations
• County balances to date
• N.C. Education Lottery

Medicaid and Social Services

• Medicaid swap proposal revised (XLS)
• Medicaid stimulus savings (XLS)
• DHHS Budget Estimates

State allotments for public schools

• Allotment formula (XLS)
• Planned allotments by LEA (XLS)
• Link to DPI Budget planning allotments for your county's public school system(s) and related materials
• Local salary supplements paid to teachers and other school employees
• Schools statistical profile, facts and figures

Miscellaneous

• Department of Revenue Contacts (PDF)