Helpful links for budget planning

Fearless forecast for 2010-11

Every year at this time, we develop forecasts of major county revenues and assemble other information to help county officials put together their proposed budgets for the upcoming fiscal year.

Please find here a spreadsheet of all local state-shared revenues from 2008-09. We have also linked all other accompanying materials within this main document for your easy retrieval.

State and National Economic Outlook

National and state economists declared the end of the "Great Recession" in late summer 2009, after 20 months of the steepest economic decline since the "Great Depression." While forecasters predict continuing recovery in 2010, growth predictions are modest at best and do not track with past post-recessionary recoveries. Not sure if it’s an “L” shape but definitely not a “V.” Nationally, the U.S. economy is predicted to expand by less than 3 percent (Wells Fargo Economics); the state economic outlook is slightly better with a 3.5 percent growth rate forecast (Connaughton, UNCC).

Slow recovery translates into continued high unemployment, which in turn translates into anemic retail sales. Per the N.C. Employment Security Commission, North Carolina lost nearly 300,000 jobs during the recession and economists predict that it will take 4 to 5 years to regain lost jobs. The state’s January unemployment rate at 11.1 percent is significantly higher than the national rate at 9.7 percent and the 8th highest nationally. Even as dire as this rate is, it masks what’s happening in individual counties. In December, the most recent seasonally adjusted data available, 53 counties had unemployment rates exceeding the statewide average, with Scotland County being the highest at 17.7 percent, followed by Rutherford County at 17 percent. Not much improvement is expected in 2010 – the state unemployment rate is expected to remain near 11 percent.

• Read the full 'fearless forecast' for 2010-11

State-Shared Revenues

• Sales, deed stamp, hold harmless, beer & wine, occupancy, white goods, scrap tire receipts (XLS)
• Art. 40 first one-half cent and Art. 42 second one-half cent allocations and distributable shares by county (XLS)
• Art. 39 first one-cent allocations and distributable shares by county (XLS)

ADM Fund

• County balances to date (PDF)

Lottery School Construction Fund

• Estimated lottery distributions for 2010-11 as proposed in House budget (XLS)
• Estimated lottery allocations per straight per-pupil funding as proposed in Senate budget (XLS)
• Estimated lottery allocations per statutory formula (XLS)
• County balances to date
• N.C. Education Lottery

Medicaid and Social Services

• 2010-11 estimated county Medicaid hold harmless (XLS)
• Suggested methodology for calculating Medicaid hold harmless (PDF)
• DHHS budget estimates

State allotments for public schools

• Suggested methodology for Art. 40 & 42 school capital set-aside (PDF)
• Link to DPI Budget planning allotments for your county's public school system(s) and related materials
• Local salary supplements paid to teachers and other school employees
• Schools statistical profile, facts and figures

Miscellaneous

• Department of Revenue contacts